Overview: Bush and Public Opinion

As George W. Bush-league prepares to exit the White Firm, the United States is in many ways dramatically different from when he took the adjuration of part in 2001. His start few months as president were largely unremarkable, despite the contentious 2000 election. But the horrific terror attacks of Sept. eleven, 2001 greatly altered the course forward.

The attacks transformed American public opinion and fundamentally reshaped Bush-league's image. His job approval rating reached 86% by late September. The public expressed wide willingness to utilize military force to gainsay terrorism. Simply so controversies over the build-up to war in Iraq and other Bush policies started to accept their toll – at home and abroad.

U.S. forces quickly ousted Saddam Hussein in 2003, but could not create a lasting peace. As the fighting dragged on, Bush-league won re-election by a narrow margin. In his 2nd term, he failed in his bid to build support for a partial privatization of Social Security. American deaths connected in Iraq, the authorities bungled the response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 and political scandal reached straight into the White House.

Before long, economical troubles started to mount, and in 2008, the economic system went into a unsafe gratis fall that led to controversial and expensive government intervention in financial markets. The president'due south approval ratings slid over time to historic lows. His approval last hit fifty% as he started his second term. It stood at but 24% in early December.

Not surprisingly, the public'due south verdict on the Bush presidency is overwhelmingly negative. In a Dec 2008 Pew Research Heart survey, but 11% said Bush-league will be remembered as an outstanding or to a higher place average president – by far the lowest positive terminate-of-term rating for any of the past four presidents. Yet Bush's impact on public opinion over the past eight years is seen in ways that go well beyond his personal unpopularity.

He helped shape the mail service-9/xi climate of stance that was broadly accepting of a muscular approach to U.S. national security. And even after much of the public came to oppose the state of war in Republic of iraq, there continued to be considerable back up for the Bush doctrine of preemptive military activeness. In spite of the public's shock over pictures of corruption of detainees at the U.S.-run Abu Ghraib prison house, nearly half of Americans consistently said that the torture of terrorists to proceeds central information was at least sometimes justified.

In the last year of his presidency, even every bit his blessing rating steadily declined to historic lows, almost Americans connected to say Bush's anti-terror policies deserve at least a fair corporeality of credit for preventing more than terror attacks.

In his starting time term, Bush scored several early on legislative successes on domestic bug – such equally the No Child Left Behind teaching reform, two rounds of tax cuts and the launch of a significant Medicare drug plan.

Just afterward those successes, the instances when Bush-league was able to mobilize – and maintain – public support for his agenda were rare. Even in the realm of national security, the public increasingly rejected the idea that a large military presence overseas would reduce the threat of terror at dwelling.

Public bankroll for what was to accept been Bush'southward signature second-term achievement – reforming the Social Security system – withered within months of his reelection. His immigration reform proposal faced opposition within his ain political party, fifty-fifty though information technology was an issue – like Social Security – where Americans recognized major change was needed.

What might take damaged Bush-league's legacy almost was his assistants's mixed record of competent governance. Between Iraq, the government's flawed relief attempt in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and more minor missteps over the Dubai ports issue and other matters, the authorities "brand" deteriorated badly during the Bush years. In late April 2008, just 37% expressed a favorable view of the federal government, well-nigh one-half of the percentage of v years earlier (73%).

Concluding Judgments

In a Pew survey conducted Dec. 3-7 among 1,489 adults, the American public paints a harshly negative pic of Bush-league'due south tenure. Virtually two-thirds (64%) say his administration will be remembered more than for its failures than its accomplishments, and a plurality (34%) says Bush-league will go down in history as a poor president. Fully 68% say they disapprove of Bush'south performance and most of those – 53% of the public – say they disapprove strongly. That is the highest rate of potent disapproval measured by Pew surveys in Bush'southward eight years in office.

Equally his 2d term ends, simply 13% say Bush has made progress toward solving the major problems facing the country; 37% say he has made those problems worse and 34% say he has tried just failed in his efforts. Some other 11% say he has not addressed the major problems facing the country.

More than 3 times as many people say Bush will go down in history as a poor president (34%) than said the same of Neb Clinton at the cease of his presidency (11%). Near a quarter (24%) say Bush will be seen every bit below average and close to 3-in-ten (28%) say he will be seen every bit average. Just xi% say he will go downwardly in history as above boilerplate or outstanding.

Not surprisingly, the virtually critical assessments come from Democrats. More than one-half (53%) say Bush-league will get down in history as a poor president, while 25% say he will be remembered as below boilerplate. More than four-in-ten Republicans (44%) say he will exist remembered equally an average president; 21% say below average and 6% say poor. Two-in-x say he will exist remembered as above average, while seven% say outstanding.

Americans past a wide margin (64% to 24%) also say that in the long run the failures of the Bush-league assistants volition outweigh its accomplishments. The assessment of Clinton in 2001, despite controversy over how he had conducted himself in office, was virtually a mirror paradigm. Six-in-ten said the accomplishments would outweigh the failures, and 27% said the failures would outweigh the accomplishments.

Merely over one-half (52%) of Republicans say the Bush administration will be best known for its accomplishments. That number is significantly smaller for independents (20%) and Democrats (8%). When Clinton was leaving office, his own political party (77%) and independents (threescore%) were much more convinced he would be remembered for his accomplishments.

Second Term Approval Slide

Betwixt the start of his 2d term and December 2008, Bush'due south approval rating dropped from 50% to 24%, a level that rivals the historic lows recorded by Gallup for Harry South Truman as he left office in 1952. Declines came across demographic and political groups, though significant divides still exist amidst those with differing political ideologies.

Approving amid moderate and liberal Republicans saw one of the sharpest drops – from 82% to fifty%. Bourgeois Republican approval dropped from 94% to 66%. Independent approval started at beneath one-half in 2005 – 47% – but dropped to xviii% past Dec 2008. The alter among Autonomous groups, already highly critical of Bush-league, proved less dramatic. Approval among conservative and moderate Democrats dropped from 22% t
o 8%, while approval among liberal Democrats dropped from 7% to 2%.

Bush-league'southward approval dropped significantly among all education levels. In terms of age groups, the largest decline came among the youngest voters – those historic period 18-29. Within that group, approval dropped from 50% to 19%. The oldest group – age 65 and up – experienced a smaller decline, dropping from 47% to 26%.

A Legacy of War

When people are asked what they think Bush volition exist well-nigh remembered for afterwards he leaves office, the most frequent responses volunteered are tied to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism. More than than half (51%) of responses mention facets of the Global War on Terror, with shut to three-in-ten (29%) specifically mentioning Iraq.

About 17% include specific negative assessments of Bush and his performance. Small percentages within that group refer to his competence (2%), his negative impact on the land (2%) or label him the "worst president" (ii%). Another 13% refer to the impact of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, with ix% mentioning the attacks specifically and 3% noting that Bush had kept the country safe from major set on since that day. Another 12% mentions economical issues, including 7% who refer to the economy specifically, 4% who mention the current crisis and 3% referring to the recession. Another 4% offer positive assessments of Bush'due south performance in office.

Meanwhile, concerns about Bush'due south effectiveness are also seen in the i-word answers people give to describe their impressions of the president. In mid-2005, positive one-word descriptions outnumbered negative ones, just in more recent lists, the responses take been more than negative. The most frequently mentioned clarification in the latest survey was "incompetent," just as it was in Feb 2007 and March 2006. Many of the terms offered by respondents in the December 2008 survey are negative, though the second most frequently mentioned description was honest. Adept and honorable also make the list.

The Global Outlook

On the foreign stage, a solid majority of Americans say the country is significantly less respected than in the past – and many of those people see that as a major problem. Many Americans are eager to turn inwards to bargain with this nation's problems: fully 60% said in September 2008 that domestic policy should be the primary focus of the new president. And a greater pct than before the Republic of iraq war at present say the best fashion to reduce the threat of terror is to reduce America's armed forces presence overseas, not increase information technology.

Meanwhile, a 2008 survey past the Pew Global Attitudes Project showed that majorities in 19 of the 24 nations – including several strong U.S. allies – had little confidence in Bush equally he neared the end of his presidency. A 2007 survey of 45 nations found anti-American sentiment extensive also as increasing disapproval for key elements of U.S. strange policy.

And the image of the U.S. in the Muslim world remained abysmal. Iraq, the state of war on terrorism and American back up for Israel continued to generate animosity in the Center East, Asia and elsewhere. In many nations considered central to the war on terror, the full general public securely distrusted the U.s.a.. Even in countries like Kuwait that take long been considered relatively pro-American, the U.S. image had declined.

Amongst the few vivid spots for Bush-league in the Global Attitudes surveys were the African nations that had benefited from administration programs to boost economic growth and reduce the spread of AIDS. In 2008, majorities in Tanzania and Nigeria expressed conviction in the president.

Still, Bush has had some success at home building support for tough tactics – including harsh interrogation policies for foreign detainees and regime monitoring of telephone calls or e-mails without warrants – to get together information near possible terrorists and terminate potential attacks. On residuum, more than Americans say they worry that anti-terror policies have not gone far enough in protecting the United States than say they experience the anti-terror policies take "gone too far in restricting civil liberties."

The Political Legacy

When Bush took office, Republicans controlled both Congress and the White House. But voter political party preferences shifted significantly during Bush'southward second term as missteps, bad news and scandals took their toll on Bush-league and GOP congressional leaders. In the 2006 midterm elections, more independents and moderates aligned themselves with the party out of power and Democrats took command of the House and the Senate.

In 2008, Bush was barely seen during the presidential campaign. Both Barack Obama and John McCain persistently criticized his assistants, vowing to bring "change" to Washington. Obama'south significant win and additional Democratic gains in Congress signaled a standing reject of the Republican Political party nether Bush.

In surveys conducted in the autumn of 2008, 51% of all voters said they thought of themselves as Democrats or leaned toward the Autonomous Party. That was upward v points from 46% during the same flow in 2004. Meanwhile, the number identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party brutal from 45% to 41%.

The greatest gains came amidst younger voters. Just among voters historic period 65 and older did the percentage identifying with the Democratic Party subtract – from 49% in 2004 to 47% in 2008. The percentage of voters historic period 18 to 29 identifying with the Democratic Political party increased from 48% in the fall of 2004 to 61% in the fall of 2008. Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly two-to-one (61% to 32%) in this age group, up from simply a seven-indicate advantage in 2004.